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tax reform

Simulating Russia’s Challenging Transition

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and evasion.

A Big Data Approach to Optimal Sales Taxation

In this study, we characterize and demonstrate a solution method for an optimal commodity (sales) tax problem consisting of multiple goods, heterogeneous agents, and a nonconvex policy maker optimization problem. The contribution of our approach is to allow for more dimensions of heterogeneity than has been previously possible, to incorporate potential model uncertainty and policy objective uncertainty, and to relax some of the assumptions in the previous literature that were necessary to generate a convex optimization problem for the policy maker.

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